PERBANDINGAN MODEL PEMULUSAN WINTER DENGAN ARMA(p, q) UNTUK PERAMALAN STOK BERAS BULOG PEKANBARU

Abstract

This article discusses Winter’s smoothing and ARMA(p, q) model through numerical computation. Both of these models are used to predict the availability of rice stocks at National Logistics Agency or BULOG in Pekanbaru City by considering the seasonal factor from time series span data. Then a comparison is
carried out for both forecasting models to select the right forecasting model using minimum mean square error.